For the sake of transparency, I have never attended Gencon and the last time I attended Origins, It was still a mobile con and was in Philadelphia. It's simply a matter of money -- cons like that are not cheap to go to. The following is my opinion only, formed mostly from reading several sources and casually talking to people.
That being said, I know something about both cons, just because of my work with Catalyst Game Labs. Both Origins and Gencon are big cons, but the emphasis each one has is slightly different. Origins is a players' con, where people go to play and browse the vendor's hall. Some new stuff is released, but mostly it's Games and good times.
Gencon is a little different -- while it's still games and times, its the place for gaming companies to reveal their big products of the year -- new games, major expansions, new stuff. It's the place when companies interact with fans in Q&A sessions, where game developers try to sell their home-designed games to a company looking for the next big thing. It's where new companies have the best chance to be noticed. In short, it's a place where business goes on in the shade of fifty thousand people playing games of all types.
But this year is different and that difference is the Covid-19. The Coranavirus. The fear of this virus has thrown everything off-kilter with stay at some and social distancing. For some companies, that is a serious problem. Fortunately, Catalyst is already spread out, with people all over the world and an HQ that's in the Big Boss' house. Also, Catalyst's investment into E-books will allow products to still be released, bringing in money that way. But it's more than that.
Second, the economy shutting down for more than a month. Everything beyond food and other essential services are shut down -- sports leagues, schools, restaurants, and other smalls business have been ordered closed. Conventions and events of all types have been canceled -- San Diego Comicom the big one that comes to mind. Here's a list of the ones so far: List of events affected by the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic. Only now are places beginning to open. Many people have been laid off/furloughed/working from home, and money has become tight for millions of people. Food and family care come before fun.
(In my case, I've been off the property less than a half-dozen times in March and April, and they were for food runs and trips to the pharmacy.)
Which leads to the cons themselves Origins has already been moved to October. Here is that announcement: ORIGINS GAME FAIR POSTPONED TO OCTOBER; ORIGINS ONLINE SCHEDULED FOR JUNE. That's a four-month delay, at a time people don't usually take vacations, and people are beginning to think about holiday season. Even then, it's not a sure thing -- Covid is still too unknown to know if it'll be back in the fall (Or even if it's still going to be around) They plan to have a virtual con in June, but have no idea how that is going to work.
On the other hand, Gencon is still sticking to its schedule. Their most recent update: Updates on Gen Con and COVID-19.
The problem is that the virus is still unknown factor. It could fade away, or it could hang around and continue causing trouble. It has to be making planing difficult -- will the products be on time, will the Con be as scheduled, or, worse-case scenario, will the con happen at all? And if the con goes on, how many people will have the money and time to show up? How much product do you need and how much do you bring to to the con? Can you afford the warehouse feeds for leftover stock? Can you afford a four-month delay or a canceled convention?
And it's not just the conventions themselves, but the business that depend on conventions -- restaurants, hotels, bars, and other businesses around the convention center. Most are already hurting and a reduced or canceled convention will be hard. I've seen stories that maybe a third of the restaurants in the US could go out of business.
Here's the thing about restaurants: they work on thin profit margins. When I was a manager in the pizza delivery business, out FLC (Food, Labor, Costs) were to be no more than 94% of our income. Which meant if the store earned $10,000 in a week, the store made a grand total of $600 profit -- less then $100/day. The FLC covered the cost of food, the employee's wages, and the fixed costs (rent, insurance, maintenance, etc). Most restaurants carry no more than two weeks worth of money in their accounts for unforeseen expenses. I have no doubts that other small business have similar cost considerations. Some are being creative with pickup or delivery, but that is only a small fraction of their normal income.
Here's an article on the effects the Virus is having on the dining industry: By the Numbers: COVID-19’s Devastating Effect on the Restaurant Industry.
The economy has been thrown for a loop, and a lot of companies are not going to make it. Many smaller companies will go under and even the larger companies are going to be hurting. Little or no money is coming in, but fixed expenses like rent and insurance still need to be paid. Assuming the business survives, it will take some time to get out from under the cloud this virus has the entire world under.
Things are different this year -- and society world-wide has been altered. I think, as I write this, Gencon and Origins 2020 are going to be pale specters of what they normally are. I HOPE I am wrong. Maybe in a couple months, Covid-19 will vanish, never to be a major threat ever again, and both cons set attendance records. But I'm not optimistic.
BTW -- the photos above.... The first and third ones are from this article on Sarna.net: What’s up with Catalyst? at GenCon 2019, while the second on is from this article: Recap: Shadowrun at Origins 2019 The photos are not mine -- they are used to merely illustrate the article.
That's enough for now! Later!
Craig
No comments:
Post a Comment